According to Jogo Hoje, the UFC’s middleweight chessboard might have just moved a square. After Carlos Prates’ statement win in UFC Australia on Saturday (2), Islam Makhachev didn’t exactly bury the idea of a Prates collision. He basically admitted it would be the cleanest, most compelling option for the next title shot in the meio-médios (77 kg) division.
And that matters because the champion is still waiting for his first official defense in this weight class. When the belt holder starts talking like the market is open, the matchmaking machine starts recalculating probabilities in real time.
What Makhachev said and why it matters
Makhachev was blunt: the UFC hasn’t informed him of his next bout, but he’s hearing plenty about a fight with Ian Machado Garry. Then he underlined the real power shift: Prates is suddenly getting louder attention than the rest of the contenders.
His logic is tactical, not sentimental. He listed several “possible marriages” (his words), including Kamaru Usman, Ian Garry, (Michael) Morales, and Carlos Prates, plus Shavkat as a likely next-tier option. But he singled out Prates as the one fight that feels most relevant right now.
“The Prates hype is real. He’s being talked about way more now. So I think a fight with Carlos Prates would be the most interesting.” That’s not just a compliment. That’s a signal to the matchmakers that the official ranking isn’t the only scoreboard.
Why Carlos Prates entered the champion’s radar
Prates’ recent performance in UFC Australia against Jack Della Maddalena didn’t just add a win to the record. It changed how people talk about the meio-médios picture, and that’s a currency the UFC understands.
From a pure hierarchy standpoint, Prates now has momentum, name value, and a clean narrative: he’s climbing fast, and he also carries one painful detail that guarantees engagement. He has only one UFC loss, and it came at the hands of Ian Machado Garry. In other words, Prates is both a rising problem and a “known opponent” for the division’s current favorite.
That’s why Makhachev’s comments land like a tactical feint. If Prates keeps moving forward, his path to a title shot doesn’t look theoretical anymore. It starts looking like the UFC could justify a fresh matchup based on current form and market pull.
Ian Garry stays the favorite, but the queue got pressure
Let’s not pretend the hierarchy vanished overnight. Ian Machado Garry remains the number 1 on the ranking official board, and he has a strong claim to be next. He’s also the only man to beat Carlos Prates inside the UFC octagon.
So why the pressure? Because Makhachev’s statement forces the UFC to ask a question they hate answering: if the champ is acknowledging Prates as the most interesting fight, does the promotion risk losing the best matchmaking moment by locking into Garry too rigidly?
There’s also the timing factor. Makhachev is still waiting for his first official defense at 77 kg, while Garry has been vocal about the delay. That’s the type of political friction that can tilt negotiations. Not always toward chaos, but often toward “let’s see what the champ really wants.”
And in this sport, “what the champ wants” is rarely just about feelings. It’s about the cleanest path to a profitable night and a credible contender story.
Who else is in the hunt for the welterweight belt
Makhachev’s list wasn’t random. It reads like a scouting report of the division’s safest bets and biggest names.
- Ian Machado Garry: number 1 on the ranking official, and Prates’ only UFC loss.
- Kamaru Usman: established star power and a high-ceiling matchup style.
- Michael Morales: another credible threat that fits the UFC’s “stack the division” logic.
- Shavkat: mentioned as a contender in the next tier, likely around the top five.
But here’s the thing: the UFC can line up names all day. The real question is which fight produces the best combination of competitiveness, storyline, and ticket energy. Makhachev basically told us Prates is the guy checking the most boxes right now.
The revenge angle and the scenario for Brazil
Now we get to the spicy part. Prates and Garry already have an emotional hook: Garry handed Prates his only UFC defeat. That sets the stage for a revanche that could feel inevitable if Garry gets past Makhachev or if the UFC decides the narrative payoff is worth the risk.
And both men, as reported, talk about a future scenario where the cinturão interino storyline could be in play, specifically the idea of bringing a major fight to Brazil. That’s not just fanservice. That’s a promotional strategy. Brazil is a live market for MMA, and the UFC knows it.
So when Makhachev says Prates is the most interesting option, it also hints at a bigger plan: potentially keeping the spotlight on the Brazilian fanbase rather than locking into a purely “ranking-correct” outcome.
What can happen now inside the UFC machine
Here’s the likely split-screen reality. Garry remains the top candidate because he has the official ranking position and the head-to-head advantage over Prates. That’s the easy sell for the promotion.
But Makhachev’s comments introduce a wildcard: if the UFC believes Prates’ latest win has created a stronger hype wave than the market projected, then the champion’s endorsement can become the justification to pivot the matchmaking plan.
Does that mean Garry gets bumped? Not necessarily. But it can delay, reshape, or even force a “winner of X gets next” style decision if negotiations get messy.
And remember: the champ is still without an officially scheduled first defense in the meio-médios. That empty spot is where these decisions get made.
O Veredito Jogo Hoje
Our read is simple: Makhachev didn’t just praise Prates. He gave the UFC a tactical escape route from a matchup that might be “correct” but not necessarily “maximal.” Garry is still the favorite on paper, yet Prates has now earned a legitimate claim through performance impact and crowd magnetism. In a division where momentum and narrative swing faster than footwork, the champion’s word carries weight—and Prates just found his lever. The queue didn’t flip. It tightened.
Signed: JogoHoje.esp.br, Analyst Tático.
Perguntas Frequentes
Why did Islam Makhachev cite Carlos Prates as the most interesting fight?
Because Prates’ win raised his profile immediately in the 77 kg meio-médios picture, making him a higher-engagement option for the next title shot. Makhachev framed it as current attention and practical matchmaking value, not just name recognition.
Is Ian Machado Garry still the favorite to face Makhachev?
Yes. Garry is number 1 in the official ranking and has the key UFC advantage over Prates. Unless the UFC decides Prates’ momentum outweighs Garry’s hierarchy claim, Garry remains the most likely next challenger.
Is there a chance Carlos Prates can fight for the belt in Brazil?
There’s a real storyline pathway. A Prates leap could align with the UFC’s interest in placing big fights where the market is hot, and a potential revanche with Garry adds extra narrative fuel. It’s not guaranteed, but the Brazil angle becomes more plausible when the champion publicly acknowledges Prates as a top option.
